Tyranny of numbers

The Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) has released the micro data from its most recent annual Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) for the Iranian year 1399 (21 March 2020 to 20 March 2021). The results do not surprise — the downward slide in living standards and the rise in poverty that started a decade ago continues. Along with the more positive news on the GDP and employment front that have become available in the last few weeks, the survey offers a relatively accurate if mixed picture of a country and a people struggling under the Trump-Biden maximum pressure campaign. Relative to household welfare, the economy is doing better. GDP grew by 3.6% last year and last quarter (spring 2021) 200,000 more people were working compared to a year ago. This makes perfect sense since falling real wages that are hurting welfare are good for employment and production.