Tyranny of numbers

Update on Iran’s Covid-19 epidemic

Posted in COVID-19 by Djavad on May 17, 2020

In a recent webinar at Harvard’s Middle East Initiative and a virtual conversation with Princeton’s Iran Center (here) I discussed the extent of the Covid-19 epidemic in Iran, and each time noted that, given the country’s high level of economic distress and the government’s tight budget, stay-at-home rules may not last very long.  This has come to pass now. A few weeks ago the government relaxed the social distancing guidelines and, after a month of decline in the daily numbers of cases and deaths, both rates seem to be heading back up. (more…)

Making sense of Iran’s coronavirus statistics

Posted in COVID-19 by Djavad on April 17, 2020

Iran’s COVID-19 crisis has gotten lots of media attention because Iran was an early epicenter of the pandemic, and because of its geopolitical significance.  The crisis has also intensified pressure on the Trump administration not to heed calls by former world leaders, former US diplomats, and influential newspaper editorials, to ease sanctions against Iran.  For some proponents of regime change in Iran the epidemic is more than a human tragedy: it is also the proverbial straw that could break the camel’s back, which is why throwing some light on the intensity of the crisis is timely. (more…)