Rethinking CPI, Food Prices, and Living Standards in Iran
A comment from an informed reader prompted me to re-examine my earlier post on living standards in 2024/25. The issue raised was whether it is adequate—or even accurate—to deflate household expenditures with the overall CPI, as reported by the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), while ignoring the fact that food prices have risen faster than average prices.
(more…)Household Survey Data Reveal Modest Gains in Iran’s Living Standards for 2024/2025
The recently released microdata from Iran’s Household Expenditures and Income Survey (HEIS) offers valuable insights into household economic conditions across the country during the Iranian year ending on 20 March 2025 (Iranian year 1403 or 2024 for short). This post updates my earlier post on Iranian living standards in 2023.
(more…)New data reveal rising living standards in Iran
The latest data files for the 2023/2024 (1402) Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) just became available on the website of the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). SCI had already published its summery results (in Persian) a couple weeks ago, showing considerable increase in nominal incomes (53.9 and 51.4 percent for urban and rural households, respectively) and expenditures (55.9 and 45.4 percent). Given the year’s inflation of about 40%, these numbers indicate considerable increases in real incomes and expenditures.
(more…)Declining Poverty Under Raisi
The hottest topic in Iran’s impromptu presidential election is economic justice, with inflation a close second, the two topics on which the interests of the poor and the middle class diverge. The tragic death of President Raisi last month has thrown Iran into a contentious election debate in which the performance of his administration is a central issue. Raisi made many promises, most of which had remained unfulfilled at the time of his death. Promises for one million new jobs and one million new homes each year are well below target, as are bringing inflation down and preventing Iran’s currency slide. These failures might have been avoided had he succeeded in his other goal of ending US sanctions.
(more…)Rising poverty and falling living standards in Iran in 2020
The Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) has released the micro data from its most recent annual Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) for the Iranian year 1399 (21 March 2020 to 20 March 2021). The results do not surprise — the downward slide in living standards and the rise in poverty that started a decade ago continues. Along with the more positive news on the GDP and employment front that have become available in the last few weeks, the survey offers a relatively accurate if mixed picture of a country and a people struggling under the Trump-Biden maximum pressure campaign. Relative to household welfare, the economy is doing better. GDP grew by 3.6% last year and last quarter (spring 2021) 200,000 more people were working compared to a year ago. This makes perfect sense since falling real wages that are hurting welfare are good for employment and production.
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Tyranny of numbers 
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