Food Prices Surge in a Year Marked by War on Iran
Last week, the Statistical Center of Iran published its inflation report for Esfand (ending March 20), the final month of the Iranian year 1404. Despite the record-high inflation reported for the year, its most noteworthy fact is its release amid heavy bombing by the United States and Israel. It is a reminder of the resilience of the Iranian spirit—not only on the battlefield, but also in maintaining the state’s core functions on schedule. Perhaps more damaging than the destruction of the country’s physical capital is the erosion of its institutions, of which the production of accurate statistics—even when politically inconvenient—is essential and far harder to rebuild.
(more…)Household Survey Data Reveal Modest Gains in Iran’s Living Standards for 2024/2025
The recently released microdata from Iran’s Household Expenditures and Income Survey (HEIS) offers valuable insights into household economic conditions across the country during the Iranian year ending on 20 March 2025 (Iranian year 1403 or 2024 for short). This post updates my earlier post on Iranian living standards in 2023.
(more…)The US-Israel war on Iran revives inflation fears
Kudos to the Statistical Center of Iran for not missing last month’s inflation report (Khordad = 21 May-20 June), despite the destruction caused by the Israeli bombing of Tehran. The attack struck at the heart of Tehran, a few blocks from SCI’s main building. Significantly, for those who habitually question Iran’s official statistics, the report is not flattering.
(more…)The simple demographics of Iran’s 2024 presidential election
Later this week, on Friday, July 5, a diverse electorate faces a consequential choice for the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Voters differ in age, income and ethnicity, but more than any characteristic, age dominates the debate on social media. Masoud Pezeshkian, the candidate promising reform, who has attracted support from a wide array of reformists, is urged to woo the youth vote, the generation Z (ages 18-29). Conventional wisdom is that Pezeshkian’s sharp criticisms of the establishment and promises of greater social freedoms and no filtering of the internet have made the youth a decisive voting bloc that can push the challenger over the top.
(more…)Good economic news fails to impress Iranians as they go to the polls
Two pieces of positive economic news were published last week, continued economic growth last fall and lower inflation for the Iranian month of Bahman that ended on February 20. You would think that days before the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts on March 1, they would attract attention and scrutiny. But in Iran public opinion about the economy and elections have moved beyond facts and data. Public opinion because people dismiss official news about the economy as propaganda, and elections because, thanks to heavy vetting, only one side appears to have a chance of occupying the most seats in the two assemblies.
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Tyranny of numbers 
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