Tyranny of numbers

Delay and discrepancy in Iran’s inflation data

Posted in Inflation, Macroeconomy by Djavad on April 11, 2023

For the past several years, on the first day of each month the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) has published the inflation report for the previous month. But, this month, the report for the first Iranian month of the new Iranian year 1402 (Esfand, which ended on 20 March 2023) is yet to be posted. The official explanation is that SCI is in the process of changing the base year for the CPI from 1395 (2016) to 1400 (2021). Five-year updates are normal and necessary because the expenditure weights used to calculate the CPI change over time. Presumably they are being recalculated using the household budget survey for 1400, which was concluded a year ago. Has there not been enough time to estimate the new weights?

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