The concour week in Iran
This is the concour week in Iran. About 1.3 million hopefuls are competing. Yesterday I wrote something about the concour in this week of political upheaval in large cities for the NYT, which I have posted here already. Here are a few more observations.
Officials claim that there are no losers this year because all 1.3 million will get into some university. This may be technically true thanks to the rapid increase in enrollments in distant education (Payam Noor) and minor private universities in addition to the Islamic Azad university. But it masks the fact that public universities which are more prestigious and free have not really expanded. So the concour competition is not just about getting somewhere, but to get into a top public university. That still is for the lucky 10%.
It is interesting to watch various programs and talk shows about the concour on Iranian TV. In one talk show a deeply concerned mother called in to say that her child was sick and unlikely to get better by this Thursday, June 25, to take the test. I thought the expert from the national testing agency (Sazman Sanjesh) evaded the question. So I still do not know if there a make-up for the concour. In my classes, I always get a few student who get sick and can’t take the test. How is this handled in Iran’s concour?
Another program would seem unreal to a Western reporter here to cover the street protests because it was a long program on Iran’s main news channel on nutrition–for concour competitors! I learned for the first time that eggs are bad for the test day but quick-release sugars like honey jam are good!
I hope the authorities are looking equally deep for fundemantal solutions to the conour probelm: equality of opportunity in education with efficient incentives for learning a wide range of productive skills.
On the election aftermath
Here is the second installment of my commentary on the election crisis that appeared in NYT’s “room for debate” today.
On the election
This site is about issues related to Iran’s economy, so I prefer to stay away from purely political topics, such as the controversial election outcome and its more recent tragic consequences. However, since one reader asked for my take on the election, I refer here to a short piece that I wrote last week for the New York Times blog, “room for debate.”
I received some critical email responses to this article, which were mostly motivated by the title that NYT had picked for the piece (not entirely misleading). A longer companion article is to appear shortly in the same place.
Roger Cohen on Iran’s presidential election
I thought his latest piece which appeared yesterday in the NYT was very perceptive and moving– Iran Awakens Yet Again. As its title suggests, he considers the movement in 2009 to be similar to the one that swept Khatami into power in 1997. I think there are important differences between Iran in 1997 and 2009. In a commentarywhich appeared on the Brookings site yesterdayI discuss this briefly: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0610_iran_election_salehi_isfahani.aspx.
Is the election pitting the poor vs. the middle class?
Every day this seems more like the real story of the 2009 election. Class lines are more clearly drawn in this election than in the past. The common political narrative of reformers vs. conservatives is good description but not good political analysis. Political leanings have social and economic roots that makes them sensitive to the internal dynamics of the society. There are two fault lines that run deep in the Iranian society–the rural vs. urban and the poor vs. the middle class–both of which seem to be reflected in the political divisions that have come to the fore in this election. Crude personal observations (backed by TV images!) suggest that the supporters of the two leading candidates are socially diverse: the poor (and the rural?) are more likely to vote for Mr. Ahmadinejad and the middles class in either location is for Mr. Moussavi. (more…)
The Ahmadinejad-Karrubi debate: and the loser is …
Statistics. Between the two of them it was hard to tell who won that debate on June 6, 2009. But statistics was a certain loser. Mr. Ahmadinejad provided a series of charts to defend his economic record (which, by the way, was not under attack that night) but Mr. Karrubi dismissed them by simply saying that his numbers were wrong. Most of the numbers I was able to see on the television screen seemed right to me. But, unfortunately, numbers were not the point of the debate. (more…)
A surprising result for inequality in 2007
Following the good suggestion by a keen reader, I went back to the data to see if the rise in inequality I reported earlier was due to the housing boom. It turns out that taking out all housing expenses from expenditures does not change the decile growth rates significantly. So it seems that the housing boom did not cause expenditures at the higher end to be exaggerated relative to the poorer deciles. In other words, the housing boom appears to have been inequality neutral. While doing these calculations I came across a finding that, if it stands, is good news for Mr. Ahmadinejad. (more…)
Rising inequality in Iran: who is to blame?
There have been reports of rising inequality under the Ahmadinejad’s administration (for example, in the Persian sites of Rastak and Aftab), which, unlike their claims for rising poverty, are grounded in facts. Survey data show convincingly that inequality has increased in the last few years, but what has caused it is uncertain and subject to dispute. The popular explanation (popular among reformists) for the rise in inequality in recent years is, of course, President Ahmadinejad policies. But there is a deeper, somewhat related, explanation which should not be overlooked– the oil boom itself. Deciding which explanation is more important goes to the heart of political economy questions that have occupied many minds in Iran in recent years. (more…)
Stagnant rural incomes
The gap between rural and urban incomes has been widening because the rural areas appear to have missed the recent boom or President Ahmadinejad’s redistribution. According to survey data, in 2007, the gap between rural and urban per capita household expenditures reached its highest level, nearly 50 percent, up from 45 percent in 2004. During these three years, when urban families enjoyed (a modest) 3.5 percent annual growth, rural expenditures grew by zero percent! Why the rural economy has fallen behind or out of national favor is anybody’s guess, but here are a few leading explanations. (more…)
Distributing the oil wealth? Don’t hold your breath
Presidential candidates in Iran are racing to promise giving people back their oil money. According to the BBC Persian, Mr. Ahmadinejad plans to even include Iranians living abroad (like me). Holding my breath, I reached for a calculator. (more…)
Tyranny of numbers 
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