Iran’s GDP on the eve of the Israeli attack
I was planning to write an update on the state of Iran’s economy when Israel attacked Iran on June 13. For several days, it felt pointless to continue analyzing economic data — not because the data had become irrelevant, but because war had pushed the economy off center stage. Monitoring economic trends had mattered when Iran’s economic condition shaped its geopolitical posture. At that time, I saw value in challenging distorted narratives, those claiming that the economy was teetering on the brink of collapse — perhaps to justify preemptive military action — as well as those claiming Iran was thriving under sanctions, a blessing as some hardliners in Tehran liked to describe them.
(more…)New data reveal rising living standards in Iran
The latest data files for the 2023/2024 (1402) Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) just became available on the website of the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). SCI had already published its summery results (in Persian) a couple weeks ago, showing considerable increase in nominal incomes (53.9 and 51.4 percent for urban and rural households, respectively) and expenditures (55.9 and 45.4 percent). Given the year’s inflation of about 40%, these numbers indicate considerable increases in real incomes and expenditures.
(more…)The simple demographics of Iran’s 2024 presidential election
Later this week, on Friday, July 5, a diverse electorate faces a consequential choice for the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Voters differ in age, income and ethnicity, but more than any characteristic, age dominates the debate on social media. Masoud Pezeshkian, the candidate promising reform, who has attracted support from a wide array of reformists, is urged to woo the youth vote, the generation Z (ages 18-29). Conventional wisdom is that Pezeshkian’s sharp criticisms of the establishment and promises of greater social freedoms and no filtering of the internet have made the youth a decisive voting bloc that can push the challenger over the top.
(more…)Good economic news fails to impress Iranians as they go to the polls
Two pieces of positive economic news were published last week, continued economic growth last fall and lower inflation for the Iranian month of Bahman that ended on February 20. You would think that days before the elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts on March 1, they would attract attention and scrutiny. But in Iran public opinion about the economy and elections have moved beyond facts and data. Public opinion because people dismiss official news about the economy as propaganda, and elections because, thanks to heavy vetting, only one side appears to have a chance of occupying the most seats in the two assemblies.
(more…)Iran’s Covid-19 fatalities: excess deaths show serious undercounting
The question of accuracy of reported Covid-19 deaths is not news for most countries, but in the case of Iran it is because it has geopolitical significance. Iran’s foes are interested in it because the higher the number of deaths from Covid in Iran, the more likely Iranian leaders are to stop resisting US economic pressure. For others, who care more about the plight of ordinary Iranians, higher true fatalities signify a greater humanitarian cost of US sanctions. (more…)
Tyranny of numbers 
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