New survey data show precipitous drop in incomes
For the last few days I have been staring with disbelief at the results of the most recent Household expenditures and Income Survey from the Statistical Center of Iran. The drops in expenditures and incomes are much larger than I had expected. Too bad that the release of the Central Bank national accounts data have been delayed. They wold settle my questions about the recession last year because besides personal consumption, they would provide data on investment and public expenditures.
Rural incomes and expenditures rose by 2.8% and 10%, and urban by 13% and 15%. Taking into account an inflation rate of 25.4%, we aer talking about 20 and 10 declines in average incomes of rural and urban households, respectively. This level of decline did not happen in the worst years of the war with Iraq. The government was not short of cash, so why such a large drop?
I will have to get back to staring at the numbers until someone enlightens me!
Conference on the Iranian Economy
This weekend I attended a very interesting conference entitled Iranian Economy at a Crossroads: Domestic and Global Challenges. The conference was organized by Jeff Nugent, Hashem Pesaran, and Hadi Salehi Esfahani. In attendance were Iranian and non-Iranian economists, economists and non-economist, young and old economists, and economists living inside and outside Iran. This is the second in a series of conferences on the Iranian economy that I have attended. The first was at the University of Illinois and was organized by Hadi Esfahani. That one was more focused on economics than this one, in which one interesting paper was presented by the famed Iran anthropologist, Bill Beeman. There was mention of the next one being a year from now at the University of Chicago. I notice a rising level of interest in economic research on Iran, a sign that more data is becoming available, more people are writing on Iran (mostly young economists), and more people are interested in learning about Iran’s economy, the latter perhaps caused by the rising threat of new sanctions against Iran. Let us hope that the flow of data and conferences will continue in the future but the sanctions won’t. (more…)
Signs of the economy slowing–anyone in charge?
The recently published unemployment data for spring 2009 (1388) indicate that economic slowdown continued in the second quarter of 2009. Without the national accounts data for 1387, due any day, it is difficult to be certain about the severity of the current economic slump, but unemployment and inflation data and the continuing political crisis in Tehran are reasons to be concerned about the economy. (more…)
Unemployment rising
The latest unemployment figures from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) show that in the winter 1387 quarter (2009-Q1) unemployment rose to 12.5%, from 11.9% in winter 1386. This is not a large increase but it does undermine the claim made by Mr. Ahmadinejad during the election debates that unemployment is on its way down. Unemployment is usually highest in winter, but last year the fall-to-winter increase was particularly fast: the unemployment rate rose by 3 percentage points in three months, from 9.5% to 12.5%. (more…)
The three rates of inflation
A friend asked me to write something to help reduce the confusion surrounding how inflation is measured and reported–or misreported during the election. Here is a brief explanation of not how the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is measured, which is a long story, but the three ways it can be reported. (more…)
Chatham House rules for election fraud
Someone has put up a $10,000 reward for anyone who can prove that the Iranian election was “stolen”, but I don’t think that Chatham House (CH) is likely to win. A Chatham House report prepared by political scientist Ali Ansari claims to have statistical evidence that the election was rigged. I had not planned to write on non-economic issues here but this one qualifies because it deals with numbers. (more…)
The concour week in Iran
This is the concour week in Iran. About 1.3 million hopefuls are competing. Yesterday I wrote something about the concour in this week of political upheaval in large cities for the NYT, which I have posted here already. Here are a few more observations.
Officials claim that there are no losers this year because all 1.3 million will get into some university. This may be technically true thanks to the rapid increase in enrollments in distant education (Payam Noor) and minor private universities in addition to the Islamic Azad university. But it masks the fact that public universities which are more prestigious and free have not really expanded. So the concour competition is not just about getting somewhere, but to get into a top public university. That still is for the lucky 10%.
It is interesting to watch various programs and talk shows about the concour on Iranian TV. In one talk show a deeply concerned mother called in to say that her child was sick and unlikely to get better by this Thursday, June 25, to take the test. I thought the expert from the national testing agency (Sazman Sanjesh) evaded the question. So I still do not know if there a make-up for the concour. In my classes, I always get a few student who get sick and can’t take the test. How is this handled in Iran’s concour?
Another program would seem unreal to a Western reporter here to cover the street protests because it was a long program on Iran’s main news channel on nutrition–for concour competitors! I learned for the first time that eggs are bad for the test day but quick-release sugars like honey jam are good!
I hope the authorities are looking equally deep for fundemantal solutions to the conour probelm: equality of opportunity in education with efficient incentives for learning a wide range of productive skills.
On the election aftermath
Here is the second installment of my commentary on the election crisis that appeared in NYT’s “room for debate” today.
On the election
This site is about issues related to Iran’s economy, so I prefer to stay away from purely political topics, such as the controversial election outcome and its more recent tragic consequences. However, since one reader asked for my take on the election, I refer here to a short piece that I wrote last week for the New York Times blog, “room for debate.”
I received some critical email responses to this article, which were mostly motivated by the title that NYT had picked for the piece (not entirely misleading). A longer companion article is to appear shortly in the same place.
Roger Cohen on Iran’s presidential election
I thought his latest piece which appeared yesterday in the NYT was very perceptive and moving– Iran Awakens Yet Again. As its title suggests, he considers the movement in 2009 to be similar to the one that swept Khatami into power in 1997. I think there are important differences between Iran in 1997 and 2009. In a commentarywhich appeared on the Brookings site yesterdayI discuss this briefly: http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0610_iran_election_salehi_isfahani.aspx.
Tyranny of numbers 
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