Tyranny of numbers

In my previous post I argued that sanctions and the multiple devaluations they have caused have increased the competitiveness of the Iranian economy. This means that inflation did not increase enough to undo a series of devaluations since 2011, so that the rial is cheaper in real terms, not just nominal terms. If this is the case, removal of financial sanctions confer important benefits on Iran, perhaps exceeding that of the release of frozen funds or more oil sales to China. Below I present the evidence of rial’s devaluation in real terms and leave the question of its potential for growth of non-oil exports to another time.